Geoff's question - The temptation when a solid team (Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Magic) go out early in the playoffs is to immediately call for a rebuild, though its usually unwarranted. Which, if any, of these teams needs to think rebuild?
Well lets do a breakdown of the four teams to see which is most realistic. The Spurs are actually the least likely to rebuild. They are a small market team that has always relied on the draft for the strength of their team. Many teams draft their star (Kobe, Duncan, Pierce, Howard) but then build around them with trades and free agent signings. Since the Spurs have never been know to sign the big flashy free agent or take a gamble on a big trade I don’t see them starting now. Last time they did that was with Richard Jefferson, and that has only produced moderate results at best. I see the Spurs allowing their aging stars (Duncan and Ginobili) play out their last few years, try to have the young players such as Blair, Hill, Neal and Splitter increase in minuets and hopefully numbers, and maybe swinging a trade with Parker for some other young players or picks.
The Magic are probably next least likely to rebuild because they have some really stupid contracts. If you find a team that will want Arenas for 17 million or Turkoglu for 10 million, both for another three years. Good news for them is that Jason Richardson’s 14 million is coming off the table, bad news is that he is one of their best players and they will probably have to overpay him because they have overpaid everyone else on that team. Here’s an example of their stupidity. The Magic have committed almost 10 million a year for Bass, Duhon and Q. Richardson for the next 3 years. Looking at Blair, Hill and Neal the Spurs have committed just over 2 million. All of these players are roll players, but the Magic have sunken 8 million more into less productive ones. Although the Magic will have the highest desire to rebuild, given the fact that Howard is already pulling a Carmelo, they will be stuck to their stupid contracts or trading for even stupider ones.
The Celtics, though aging, are actually in a decent spot to bolster their line-up. As Danny Ainge has proved, he is not scared to pull the trigger on a big deal. Garnett have one more year after this and so nothing major could really be done until he retires/that contract runs out. As of right now the only players they have money committed to after that year is Rondo, Pierce and Bradley. Loads of cap room. It will be interesting to see what types of deals they give to their free agents this summer (Kristic, Green, Davis, West, Wafer, Murphy, Pavlovic, Arroyo). The new CBA will dictate what type of deals these players get. The Celtics are most likely looking at short deals for a cheap as possible with all these guys. The 2013 Celtics could look very different than the ones that left the court just a few weeks ago.
The Lakers are the team that needs to rebuild the least. They have four high quality players, Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and Odom, and with talent like that all a team needs to do is plug holes to compete for a championship. However the Lakers have never had a problem throughout their entire history of superstar players wanting to play there. They would have the best chance of doing a rebuild because they can convince free agents to come and even take less money doing so. I don’t think they need to make any major moves this offseason, just a serviceable point guard (the Fisher/Blake combo is just atrocious) and one or two spot of three point shooters. But I definitely could see them trading Bynum or Odom for some big names, just because they can. A deal for Dwight Howard or even something like Kevin Love or Josh Smith. The Lakers need a rebuild far less than any of the other three teams, but I still see them being the most likely to make a big splash. Don’t be surprised if the Lakers make the splash, it is in their nature.
Evan's Question - As has been the pattern this entire year, if the Bulls keep Bosh under 24 points they win. How can the Bulls contain him and stop these 30+ nights?
Chris Bosh is like the last part of the army that comes through after the opposition’s protective walls have already been torn down. The best fighters died doing the hard work and then the fighters who were not worthy to begin the fight finish it off and get the glory. The Bulls are playing it right, you have to focus your defensive attention on Wade and Lebron, when either of those two get hot it effects the way the entire team plays around them. I think the Bulls strategy thus far has been to focus defense on the big two and let Bosh beat them. Only problem is thus far he has. Bosh has had no interest in his career of fighting down low for points and boards and now he doesn’t need to. He just slinks and shuffles for a baseline 10 foot jumper or a jumper at the elbows, and unfortunately he can hit those consistently. Wade or Lebron drive the lane, the defense collapses, and Bosh has quietly snuck away from the basket for the open jumper. It isn’t really a matter of “containing” Bosh, he just has been the leading beneficiary of a defense focused heavily on two players. Enjoy your glory now Bosh, but it was Wade and Lebron that knocked down the walls for you
Well lets do a breakdown of the four teams to see which is most realistic. The Spurs are actually the least likely to rebuild. They are a small market team that has always relied on the draft for the strength of their team. Many teams draft their star (Kobe, Duncan, Pierce, Howard) but then build around them with trades and free agent signings. Since the Spurs have never been know to sign the big flashy free agent or take a gamble on a big trade I don’t see them starting now. Last time they did that was with Richard Jefferson, and that has only produced moderate results at best. I see the Spurs allowing their aging stars (Duncan and Ginobili) play out their last few years, try to have the young players such as Blair, Hill, Neal and Splitter increase in minuets and hopefully numbers, and maybe swinging a trade with Parker for some other young players or picks.
The Magic are probably next least likely to rebuild because they have some really stupid contracts. If you find a team that will want Arenas for 17 million or Turkoglu for 10 million, both for another three years. Good news for them is that Jason Richardson’s 14 million is coming off the table, bad news is that he is one of their best players and they will probably have to overpay him because they have overpaid everyone else on that team. Here’s an example of their stupidity. The Magic have committed almost 10 million a year for Bass, Duhon and Q. Richardson for the next 3 years. Looking at Blair, Hill and Neal the Spurs have committed just over 2 million. All of these players are roll players, but the Magic have sunken 8 million more into less productive ones. Although the Magic will have the highest desire to rebuild, given the fact that Howard is already pulling a Carmelo, they will be stuck to their stupid contracts or trading for even stupider ones.
The Celtics, though aging, are actually in a decent spot to bolster their line-up. As Danny Ainge has proved, he is not scared to pull the trigger on a big deal. Garnett have one more year after this and so nothing major could really be done until he retires/that contract runs out. As of right now the only players they have money committed to after that year is Rondo, Pierce and Bradley. Loads of cap room. It will be interesting to see what types of deals they give to their free agents this summer (Kristic, Green, Davis, West, Wafer, Murphy, Pavlovic, Arroyo). The new CBA will dictate what type of deals these players get. The Celtics are most likely looking at short deals for a cheap as possible with all these guys. The 2013 Celtics could look very different than the ones that left the court just a few weeks ago.
The Lakers are the team that needs to rebuild the least. They have four high quality players, Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and Odom, and with talent like that all a team needs to do is plug holes to compete for a championship. However the Lakers have never had a problem throughout their entire history of superstar players wanting to play there. They would have the best chance of doing a rebuild because they can convince free agents to come and even take less money doing so. I don’t think they need to make any major moves this offseason, just a serviceable point guard (the Fisher/Blake combo is just atrocious) and one or two spot of three point shooters. But I definitely could see them trading Bynum or Odom for some big names, just because they can. A deal for Dwight Howard or even something like Kevin Love or Josh Smith. The Lakers need a rebuild far less than any of the other three teams, but I still see them being the most likely to make a big splash. Don’t be surprised if the Lakers make the splash, it is in their nature.
Evan's Question - As has been the pattern this entire year, if the Bulls keep Bosh under 24 points they win. How can the Bulls contain him and stop these 30+ nights?
Chris Bosh is like the last part of the army that comes through after the opposition’s protective walls have already been torn down. The best fighters died doing the hard work and then the fighters who were not worthy to begin the fight finish it off and get the glory. The Bulls are playing it right, you have to focus your defensive attention on Wade and Lebron, when either of those two get hot it effects the way the entire team plays around them. I think the Bulls strategy thus far has been to focus defense on the big two and let Bosh beat them. Only problem is thus far he has. Bosh has had no interest in his career of fighting down low for points and boards and now he doesn’t need to. He just slinks and shuffles for a baseline 10 foot jumper or a jumper at the elbows, and unfortunately he can hit those consistently. Wade or Lebron drive the lane, the defense collapses, and Bosh has quietly snuck away from the basket for the open jumper. It isn’t really a matter of “containing” Bosh, he just has been the leading beneficiary of a defense focused heavily on two players. Enjoy your glory now Bosh, but it was Wade and Lebron that knocked down the walls for you
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