Derek's Responses.
Evan’s Question - How far should the grizzlies go to keep Marc Gasol this offseason (if at all).
*Note, given that the current CBA is running out July 1st, the parameters for free agency might completely change in the new CBA . The article is written without knowing or speculating these parameters.
The dilema - Marc Gasol is a precious commodity in the NBA as a true center, at 7-1 265 pounds. Many team’s philosophy is to get a true center and build around that. Gasol will be a restricted free agent, so the Grizzles will have the right to offer match any offer given by another team. But as Gasol is the type of player that many other teams covet, another team could offer him some serious coin. If the Grizzles want to keep him, they may have to pay him a little more than what he might be worth. The Grizzles are ideally hoping to pay Gasol somewhere in the 4-8 million range, where some teams can and may pay him in the 8-11 million range.
My first reaction to this question was that it is imperative that the Grizzles keep Gasol. They are coming off a surprising deep run into the playoffs, in which the city formed their own identity around this team and vise-versa. As a team that “stubbled” into this newly fanatic fan base, it would seem to be very important to keep this unit as similar as possible. The fans could then find it seamless to pick up next season where they left it off the season before. Ownership spending money on players signals to the fan base that they are not only invested not just in the team but in the fans and the city itself. Given that Gasol played his high school ball in Memphis, the ownership would really be signaling to their fans that they are investing in the city.
Though saying all this Memphis must be realistic with the type of team they are and the moves they must make that will be beneficial not just now but down the road as well. Memphis is a small market team that will never make the type of money that big cities like Chicago, New York and Los Angeles routinely make, thus they will never be able to spend like these teams. They have already spent big money on Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay, they surely can not keep up with this type of spending. It would be foolish, if not irresponsible, for a small market team to spend big money on arguably the third best player on the team.
Gasol’s playoff numbers may be slightly deceiving since his role was heightened in the wake of Rudy Gay’s season ending injury. If everyone is healthy, it will not be crucial for Memphis to have Gasol’s playoff numbers of 15 ppg (a 5 point bump from regular season numbers) and 11.2 rpg (a four rebound bump), as these numbers are most likely a result of the team picking up the loss of their top player’s numbers. The Grizzles could potentially get a player with a big body that grabs rebounds and plays better than average defense for much less money, that would sufficiently fill the void if Gasol were not to return. Though having a center that can potentially get 20 and 15 on a given night forces defenses not to focus so much attention on Z-Bo and in such really opens up space for everyone on the offensive end.
Ideally it would be great to see Gasol be as loyal to the city as they would be to him, take less money and stay in the city where he has played all of his NBA ball. But try telling that to a 26 year old deciding between 5 million a year and 10 million. Most likely the best corse of action for both Gasol and the team would be a sign and trade and for the team to receive back a slightly less talented player for much less money. Gasol could get paid what he is “worth”, and the Grizzles could obtain a player to rebound and play defense. Like say a package deal with the Suns in which they get Robin Lopez back, or a deal with the Rockets in which they could get Luis Scola. And heck, maybe the new CBA will be constructed in such a way that a player like Gasol can’t make that much money and they Grizzles could retain him. Sorry Grizzly fans, but be prepared to see Marc Gasol in another jersey next year.
Geoff’s Question - Defense. What does OKC need to do to contain Dirk, and vice versa the Mavs to shut down Durant?
Defending arguably the two hardest match-ups in the league. Dirk is a 7 footer that does most of his damage 15 feet from the rim, Durant is 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan who does the bulk of his damage from 20 (or further) from the rim. Do you play guards quick enough to stay with them, but too small to be a bother? Or do you bring out a bigger player and weaken your interior defense?
It pains me to say this, but Dirk Nowitzki is the best player in this series (*readers, you will never see any Dirk love sent from my direction). He, more than Durant, posses the biggest conundrum as he plays the bulk of his minuets at the power forward position. On paper it would then make most sense for the Thunder to place their power forward, Serge Ibaka, on him. But having Ibaka, the playoff leader in blocks, play defense at 15 feet and beyond from the basket weakens the Thunders defense on many levels. The biggest of these is Ibaka’s uncanny sense of getting blocks on the help defense, sagging off his guy to swat the ball seemingly out of nowhere. But by taking Ibaka off of Nowitzki (and on to Marion) means that the next best option is putting Durant onto him and tiring him out on the defensive end and possibly limiting his offensive production. The Thunder may just have to play defense by committee and have a combination of Ibaka-Durant-Collison, hoping that a steady change in defenders will shift Nowitzki’s rhythm.
Durant is the most explosive player of the two, when he gets streaky hot it can be scary. There was a glimpse of him, in the clinching game 5 verses the Nuggets, where (dare I say it) he looked Jordan-esque. At his very best he is possibly the best in the league, but unfortunately this side of him comes out on an inconsistent basis. He will get his 30 points a night in this series, but I am talking about the 40 point games where he takes over late in the game. Durant’s biggest weakness which Dallas needs to pounce on, is that he can be rattled from his game. More than once in these playoffs he has been clearly and visually shaken from his game, the veteran Dallas team can and should try to exploit this. Durant will probably see a heavy dose of Shawn Marion in this series, with a slight flavoring of Nowitzki and Corey Brewer.
Both players will average 30 points a game this series, so any notion of stopping these players should be quickly disregarded. It is not necessarily how the teams will guard the players in the first 40 odd minuets of the game, but in how this defense will effect the last 5 minuets of both players.
Evan’s Responses
Derek’s Question - Make a case for Joel Anthony in this series.
I’m going to be honest when I say that Joel Anthony and the Heat are in trouble if he is the starting centre. He is undersized, underskilled and doesn’t seem to have the drive to really go hard for rebounds (is prone to cheap fouls, can’t shoot free throws…need I go on?). Even though he is no Dwight Howard, he will come in handy for one reason. Shot blocking.
Chicago is a team that thrives on the offensive boards. Guys like Noah and Boozer will rebound well against the best big men in the league. Joel Anthony is far from the top tier. He grabbed 3.5 rebounds and poured in 2.0 points per game this year… Anthony is a camp out defender who is best used to alter shots on the help side. If Boozer is backing him down, they will need to send a double team for sure but if Rose and Deng are driving to the hoop, I think that Anthony’s long arm of the law should make them think twice.
The last thing Miami needs is another guy who shoots too much but I think the Heat would be better off if Joel Anthony got more shots in a game (cringe). He has shot nearly 50% for his career so he’s not completely terrible. He doesn’t score because he doesn’t shoot. If he’s going to be on the floor, he needs to be respected as someone who might shoot the ball. They don’t have anyone in the middle who scores on a regular basis and for a team who plays a fair bit of half court offence, that is a problem. Let him play some back to the basket ball and extend the offence beyond isolation, screen and roll plays.
Geoff’s Question - What is Orlando’s strategy this offseason for dealing with Dwight Howard?
I have always thought that Dwight Howard needs a proper point guard to play with. Not a score first point guard (Nelson or Arenas) but a real floor general. Throughout history big men have been successful when paired with an elite guard. Stockton-Malone, Magic-Kareem, Parker-Duncan, Stoudamire-Nash. No, not all of these pairs have won championships but they have consistently put together winning teams year after year. Jameer Nelson plays such a helter-skelter offence, Arenas shoots way too quickly and far too often. To keep Dwight Howard, the Orlando Magic need to find the next point guard- big man combo.
Raymond Felton is a player that is very interesting for this role. When he was paired up with Amar’e in New York he was playing by far his best basketball of his career with increases in both assists and points scored. As soon as he was traded to Denver, where he is coming off the bench, his assists dropped by 3 and points by nearly 6. Felton needs a big man too! He finally started to come into his own with Stoudamire and now he’s back to where he was before… I would love to see him get into at least a 3 season rhythm with a big man who knows his way around the key. If the Magic were to trade Nelson for Felton straight up, I think it would be beneficial for both teams. Contract wise they come out pretty much even but Denver gets a high energy back up to Ty Lawson and Orlando gets a point guard that can run and set up a quality half court offence.
If Dwight Howard has a point guard that knows how to get him the ball in the low post, he will be unstoppable. Even if teams double him when he gets the ball that low, the Magic have gobs (maybe too many) of outside shooters that will work with a pure point guard to get open shots.
Get Dwight a point guard and a legitimate back up centre for 10 minutes per game and the Magic should have no problem keeping him around.
Geoff's Response
Derek's Question- Make a case for the importance of Taj Gibson in this series.
It was clear enough in the first game of the Eastern conference finals the type of impact Taj Gibson can potentially have on this series. Gibson cannot be expect to put up incredible numbers. He is currently sporting a modest 6.3PPG and 4.5 RBG in the playoffs. However, facing Miami's more then questionable front court Gibson's impact could be substantial. Gibson had 3 of Chicago's 19 offensive rebounds to the Heat's 6. The importance of these rebounds cannot be overstated as it not only leads 2nd chance points, but also limits Miami's ability to score on the fast break were they are most lethal. Also on Sunday no one could miss his 2 exceptional dunks, one in the face of Wade and the other a high soaring putback, which served as the final insult to a rather poorly played 2nd half by Miami.
Gibson is a player who is not only efficient, shooting at 0.576% this playoffs, but has the physical ability to swing momentum on both offensive and defensive. The fans were overjoyed when he held his ground one on one with Lebron and stuffed the 2 time MVP. Gibson's impact was felt throughout game 1 and his less then modest +17 on the night tells the story of his impact.
Game 1 seemed like a Gibson's night, but now back to reality. What can we expect from Taj on a night to night basis? Most likely Gibson's efforts will be manifest less on the scoreboard and highlight reel and more on the defensive end of the court. The Bulls, one of, if not the best, defensive team boast a front court that loses little defensively when its starters, Boozer and Noah, leave the court. Their replacements, Gibson and Asik, are not only young, hard working and athletic. They have the confidence on their coach. At times he would ride them late in the semifinal games against the Hawks. Having a sophomore of Gibson's consistency and experience, who can come of the bench and play 12mins or 30mins is a luxury for any coach.
It will be interesting to see how Taj handles his match ups as he will likely see a fair bit of Bosh and Lebron James, as the Heat often went to a small lineup with James at the 4 in game 1. The reality is Gibson will not be able to shut out either of these players, but the beauty of having a player such as Taj is that he works well in tandem with your starters. You take out Boozer, who is strong and can be a handful defensively and on the boards, and replace him with Gibson, less talented offensively, but a strong defender with length, energy and a decent shot blocker averaging 1.6 this playoffs and 1.3 in his career. Gibson has also proven to take care of the ball, rarely turning it over, defending without fouling and possessing a solid jumper.
Having a bench player who can give you a solid amount of quality minutes allows lots of rest for Boozer, an aging vet. Coach Thibodeau's depth on his front court giving him options defensively and insurance when a big gets in foul trouble, and Gibson, along with the surprise of Omer Asik's play, is one of the main reasons for the Bull's luxury at the front court. Gibson is an exceptional young role player who through energy, defence and efficiency sets up the Bulls for their best chance at get past Miami by affording the Heat no rest at either end of the court.
Evan's Question- In the west finals, each team has two players that do most of the scoring (Durant, Westbrook, Nowitzki, Terry) which team's role players will decide the outcome of the series?
I was really hoping to write this prior to game 1, but unfortunately was unable. Both are very interesting combinations of players. Each set has the sure thing in Nowitzki and Durant, who conceivably will give you between 20 to 40 points a night. Each causing matchup nightmares for the other teams. Their play will no doubt be the highlight of the series.
Meanwhile, each set also contains a player who will score, of that there is no doubt, but the quality of their game is much more fluid. Westbrook cannot be matched for speed, yet will run into trouble when he passes his man to find Chandler waiting. He can score in bunches, but also miss in bundles. Westbrook can pass, averaging 7 APG, but also turns the ball over 4.5 times per game. He is at his best when he is distributing and making others better. At times he has trouble sharing the ball, which, can keep the ball out of Durant's hands. This is most critical at the end of the game when Durant should be the one taking the last shot.
On the other side, Jason Terry, an exceptional clutch shooter, does just that. He shoots. Since he lacks Westbrook's speed and ability to get to the basket his shot and the Mavs' spread out offence is what will get him his points. Terry will contribute a few assist but is nowhere near as affective across the board as Westbrook, who is a legitimate triple double threat. He can hit threes and has proven to be clutch hitting big shots at the right time. Terry is a potent scorer at times and a solid 6th man the rest. He will have an impact, less then Westbrook though.
Prior to game 1 I was going to say that; the fact that Durant and Westbrook get to the foul line 17.25 times a game compared to Dirk and Terry's 12.8, would defiantly help the Thunder's chances. Getting points at the stripe can be much more efficient then the long range game employed by Nowitzki and Terry who rely mostly on their ability to make mid and long range shots, which they have thus far (averaging 0.497% and 0.524% respectively). Shooting, however, especially 3 shooting, can and often does go cold at some point. Now Durant and Westbrook did make it to the line 37 times and tallied 60 points in game one, however Dirk, out of character made it 24 times himself…and hit them all... Still I like the Thunder's aggression and ability to attack the basket over the Mav's lethal, yet high risk offence that demands solid shooting night in and night out.
Finally, I think, although it pains me to say, it will be the Mavs going to the Finals. Their offence, especially Nowitzki, has clearly hit its stride and shows no signs of cooling. Both Nowitzki and Terry have been in Dallas chasing a ring for years and they are getting desperate as this might be their last real chance to get a championship. Dirk and Terry are not the only 2 vets on the Mavs, Kidd, Marion, Chandler, Stojakovic and Haywood all have experience, expectation and drive. In the end I think it will be their experience, desire and cohesive team play, led by Nowitzki and Terry, that will eventually finish of the Thunder's talent, and athleticism.
